Brad is still away in London for most of this week, normal service for the free newsletter will resume upon his return. Sean has continued his daily analysis for our subscribers in his absence. As is Brad’s way, he has sent us his recommendations & comments from his trip:
- Red: Château Pétrus 1973 Bordeaux (‘92 will suffice if you can’t get the ‘73)
- White: Montrachet, DRC 1976 Burgundy (absolutely insist upon the ‘76 – well worth it)
- Real Yorkshire Wensleydale from the Hawes creamery & Algens Hus Moose cheese (oh so good that words fail me )
- Highland Park 21 year old single malt
- Saville Row does indeed contain the best tailors in the world
- My goodness EastEnders is depressing
- Avoid Vauxhall South London at night – “It’s all gone well Pete Tong init”
He also mentioned something about being forcibly removed from a Spearmint Rhino.. But I’ve absolutely no idea what he was on about there.
To the markets
Over the last week or so there has been a slowing of the recent rally & we’ve even begun to hear the phrase “Secular Bear Rally” once again from the vacuous talking heads commentariat. Being Inter-market analysts we can’t make calls upon a feeling, but form our view based upon the observation of tradable trends across the Equity, Currency, Commodity and Bond markets. Looking across the traditionally high risk areas such as american & emerging market small caps, emerging market equities, and emerging market bonds there is no evidence of a “flight to safety”. We believe that there is substantial buying on weakness which is providing a significant level of support to the recent rally. Whilst we would not be surprised or disappointed by a pull-back [that’s a buying opportunity for us], we expect the trends of the last few months to assert themselves again over time.
There are some things not quite going according to plan; Commodities, USD, & US Treasuries as the below graphs show. We will be monitoring these quite closely, but at the moment see a normal trading pattern.
For what it’s worth the VIX volatility index is showing that investor fear is continuing to be removed from the market
Our position is that nothing fundamental has changed and we still maintain our long term outlook.
- Bearish -> US Treasuries and USD
- Bullish -> Junk Bonds and Equities
- Bullish -> Commodities, AUD, CAD, & Emerging market currencies
Our wealth creation portfolio is up 17.26% from the beginning of the year with approximately 40% of the volatility of the S&P 500. Please note this portfolio is not leveraged.
Subscribers to our paid service are privy to our portfolio, sector weightings, and trade history.
