The final nail in the coffin for US Treasuries or the final “good to go” for the commodity bull? Well you take your pick! Look at how close the CRB is to breaking to a multi-week high against long dated US Treasuries (TLT). The behaviour of the CRB relative to TLT suggests that a significant bull market in commodities is about to kick into gear! What more of a bullish signal can you ask for if commodities start outperforming US Treasuries! Perhaps this is the ultimate inflation confirmation indicator.
We don’t know what the futures holds but we do know that once a primary trend is established then it lasts for months if not years. We are confident that we are about to see confirmation of a primary bull trend in commodities over the coming days (as opposed to weeks).
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