Lessons from the Bond markets $EMB $JNK

June 3rd, 2010 § 0

The Bond markets are one of the main focal points of our analysis. Financial market trends begin and end in the money markets. We spend condsiderable time reviewing emerging market and US corporate debt. These are particularly sensitive to investors propensity for risk, and as such, useful indicators for equities.

We’ve seen some fairly choppy trading over the last month, and one may now be thinking that investor sentiment has swung 180 degrees in this time. In this time we’ve gone from multi-week highs in numerous markets to testing, and in some case breaching, multi-week lows. We’ve included some longer term graphs (2 years), which puts the recent downturn in some perspective.

Firstly lets look at the ETF EMB. This attempts to map the performance of the JPMorgan EMBI Global Core Index, and holds liquid debt instruments in emerging market countries.

We now move towards the pointer end of the US economy by looking at JNK. Here we can see the investor views of publicly issued US non-investment grade fixed-rate corporate bonds.
You may be a little surprised and somewhat encouraged by what we have shown here. You will be reading reports of doom & gloom, but frankly, taking into account the inter-market view of the bond markets we can’t see it yet. Risk appetite, whilst not going gangbusters, is remaining  with important price levels are still to be broken.
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